The effect of Asymmetric Money Supply Shocks on Inflation in Egypt using NARDL Model over the period 1961-2018

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Economics Instructor at the Higher Institute of Management and Information Technology Kafr El-Sheikh Egypt

Abstract

This research contribute a little to the empirical literature on the asymmetric effect of money supply shocks on inflation; using a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) for Egypt using annual data over an estimation period spanning 1961 to 2018. This methodology allows for empirical tests of short- and long-run asymmetric responses of inflation to both positive and negative shocks of money growth. The results reveal that inflation responds asymmetrically to monetary shocks in both short-run and long-run, that is, inflation responds faster (by one lag period) and larger (by about 7%) to positive monetary shocks than negative shocks. In addition, the asymmetric causality test developed by (Hatemi-J, et al., 2015) implemented and shows that the causality pass-through from money shock to inflation rate. 

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