Document Type : Original Article
Author
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic Studies and Political Science, Alexandria University Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Islamic Economic and Financial Sciences, Umm Al Qura University
Abstract
This study aims at analyzing the quantitative and causal relationships be-tween inflation, unemployment and ec-onomic growth in the Egyptian econ-omy during the period (1990- 2014). This is done through the study of the relationships between inflation, unemployment and economic growth in the economic literature, and its evolution during the study period, and then through a standard model based on common integration method by Johansson, model error correction (VECM) to me-asure the relationships between variables in the long and shortterm, as well as the use of Granger causality analysis to determine the direction of the rel-ationships between the variables of the model. This study will help us to sug-gest the suitable policies to keep stable inflation rate, low unemployment and high economic growth rates in the Eg-yptian economy. It is evident from the study of the evolution of inflation, unemployment and economic growth rates that the Egyptian economy is suffering from a significant rise in the rates of inflation, unemployment, which is reflected in the high rate of economic misery during the study period, and has contributed to the decline in economic growth rates The estimation results prove that a longrun cointegration relationship exists between inflation, unemployment and economic growth, and there is a direct correlation between unemployment and inflation, and an inverse relationship between economic growth and inflation. Measurement results in the shortrun also describes an inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment. and that both have cumulative nature, and that inflation is not affected by both unemployment and economic growth. The results of the causal relationships in the shortrun show that there are Bidirectional relationship between economic growth and unemployment, and then the relationship between the two complementary and cause each other, in aggregate cases, inflation and unemployment together cause economic growth, and there is no causal relationnship between inflation and unemployment, and between inflation and economic growth. The results of the causal relationships in the longrun show there is Bidirectional relationship between economic growth and unemployment, and that there is Unidirectional relationship from unemployment to inflation, where inflation has caused unemployment, and there is Uni-directional relationship from economic growth to cause inflation as economic growth and inflation.
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