Measuring the Impact of Monetary Policy, Growth and Inflation on the Performance of Egyptian Exports٬During the Period (1975 – 2022)Using Self –slope vector Autoregressive models(VAR)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty of commerce

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics Faculty of Commerce - Tanta University

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics Faculty of Commerce - Tanta University The Egyptian Arabic Republic

Abstract

This study seeks to know the impact of the use of monetary policy tools and the impact of inflation and economic growth on the performance of Egyptian exports during the period from 1975-2022 using vector autoregressive models (VAR), impulse response functions (IRF) and Variance Decomposition analysis (VDC). The study concluded that there is a negative impact on the price of The real interest with one slowdown period on merchandise and service exports in Egypt. There is a positive effect between the money supply as a percentage of GDP in Egypt with one slowdown period and the volume of merchandise and service exports. And there is a positive effect of economic growth on the performance of exports in Egypt with three slowdown periods. And the rate Inflation has an insignificant effect on goods and service exports in Egypt. The results of the study, through the use of response impulse functions (IRF) analysis, showed that the degree of response differs in its strength and weakness between the variables used, which are exports, interest rates, money supply, inflation, and economic growth, where each variable is considered as a variable Dependent and independent at the same time. The study also reached, through variance decomposition analysis (VDC), the relative importance of the explanatory variables in explaining fluctuations in the dependent variable represented by growth, interest rates, money supply, and inflation.

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