The Inflation in Egypt between Demand Pull and Cost Push during (1991-2022): ARDL Model Study

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Instructor in the Economics and Public Finance department Faculty of Commerce Tanta University Tanta Egypt

Abstract

This research aims to study the effect of independent variables, including money supply, government debt, the US dollar exchange rate, oil price and total expenditure, on inflation rate in Egypt during the period (1991 - 2022) and using ARDL model. The study concludes that the effects of money supply and government debt on inflation rate are positive and significant in the long and short-term. Also, the impacts of exchange rate, oil prices and total expenditure on inflation rate are positive and important in long-term, only. Hence, the Central Bank of Egypt can use monetary policy tools to influence money supply and achieve the inflation target. Also, government spending and taxes can be used, as fiscal policy tools, to impact the inflation rate. Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies should be considered.

Keywords