Nosier, Shereen Adel Hassan. (2024). The Impact of Trade in Goods Versus Trade in Services on Economic Growth in Egypt (1995-2022). مجلة جامعة الإسکندرية للعلوم الإدارية, 61(5), 87-127. doi: 10.21608/acj.2024.379182
Shereen Adel Hassan Nosier. "The Impact of Trade in Goods Versus Trade in Services on Economic Growth in Egypt (1995-2022)". مجلة جامعة الإسکندرية للعلوم الإدارية, 61, 5, 2024, 87-127. doi: 10.21608/acj.2024.379182
Nosier, Shereen Adel Hassan. (2024). 'The Impact of Trade in Goods Versus Trade in Services on Economic Growth in Egypt (1995-2022)', مجلة جامعة الإسکندرية للعلوم الإدارية, 61(5), pp. 87-127. doi: 10.21608/acj.2024.379182
Nosier, Shereen Adel Hassan. The Impact of Trade in Goods Versus Trade in Services on Economic Growth in Egypt (1995-2022). مجلة جامعة الإسکندرية للعلوم الإدارية, 2024; 61(5): 87-127. doi: 10.21608/acj.2024.379182
The Impact of Trade in Goods Versus Trade in Services on Economic Growth in Egypt (1995-2022)
,Associate Professor of Economics ,Faculty of Economic Studies and Political Science Alexandria University
المستخلص
Whereas most of researchers analyzed the effect of trade on economic growth in different countries worldwide, others concentrated on the effect of trade in goods or trade of services separately on economic growth. This paper’s objective is to fill the literature’s gap by analyzing and comparing the performance of trade in goods versus trade in services on the growth in Egypt over the period (1995–2022) using the VECM co-integration approach. This objective can be obtained through estimating three models. First model to estimate the effect of total trade on economic growth in Egypt (1995-2022). Total trade is separated into imports and exports in the second model to determine the role of each subsection in growth. Finally, total trade in Egypt is divided into trade in goods and trade in service to precisely determine the role of each in economic growth over the period of the study. The results clarified a long-run steady state relationship between economic growth on the one hand and trade, inflation, exchange rate, gross capital formation, and employment on the other during the period of the study. The short-run disequilibrium has shown to be corrected quickly through about two years for all the models. The results indicate that trade affects economic growth positively with a small effect. Trade in services is of great importance in Egypt relative to trade in goods. It boosts economic growth significantly. In contrast, trade in goods hinders growth, which interpret the small effect of total trade on growth in Egypt.
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